Active registered apprenticeships across the United States expanded by 26% between 2021 and 2025 during the recovery from the COVID-19 recession, according to a new analysis published this month by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The growth outpaced the 21% increase seen nationally from 2009 to 2019 following the Great Recession. The report examines how this centuries-old job-training model has evolved across two economic expansions, with states in the Fed's Eighth District leading much of the recent gains.
During the post-Great Recession period from 2009 to 2019, three Eighth District states—Arkansas, Kentucky, and Missouri—each posted apprenticeship growth exceeding 30%, surpassing the national average, the report finds. Arkansas had suffered a 31% drop in active apprentices between 2008 and 2009, the steepest decline among Eighth District states during the recession itself. In the more recent expansion from 2021 to 2025, every Eighth District state except Indiana outperformed the nation's 26% growth rate, with all but Indiana and Illinois recording increases of 35% or more. The number of active apprentices varies widely by state: in 2019, Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri each counted over 15,000 active apprentices, while Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee each had roughly 6,000. Construction and extraction occupations dominated the apprenticeship landscape, making up 53% of all apprentices in Eighth District states in 2025 and posting steady growth during both recovery periods. Healthcare occupations also grew significantly, particularly from 2009 to 2019, though computer and math occupations saw a sharp reversal, with active apprenticeships falling nearly 60% between 2021 and 2025 despite strong wage growth and employment projections in those fields.
The report highlights two major obstacles to future expansion of the apprenticeship model. The national completion rate for registered apprenticeships stood at just 46% in 2024, meaning one in two apprentices who started a program left before finishing. Among Eighth District states, completion rates ranged from 33% in Mississippi to 58% in Illinois. For comparison, the national six-year completion rate for postsecondary education at two-year or four-year institutions reached 61%. Factors that might influence whether apprentices finish their programs include access to childcare, quality of instruction, program length, and workplace or occupational culture, the report notes.
Employer reluctance presents another challenge to growth. A review of research cited in the report suggested that employers' return on investment after five years of apprentices completing their programs ranged from $1.32 to $2.49 for every dollar invested. Some employers hesitate to launch programs because of administrative complexity and fears that apprentices will leave for competitors, the analysis finds. Programs like the American Manufacturing Apprenticeship Incentive Fund aim to counter this by offering $3,500 per apprentice who successfully completes training through a pay-for-performance model. While apprenticeships have rebounded from the Great Recession and continued expanding, low completion rates and difficulties securing employer buy-in remain risks to the future of this training model, the report concludes.