Shipping companies still face high risks in transiting the Strait of Hormuz despite the announcement of an upcoming US-Iran peace deal, security officials warned June 15, while cautioning the resumption of normal traffic could take weeks. Iran and the US have agreed to sign a preliminary deal June 19 that could suspend maritime attacks around the choke point—which handles 20% of global oil and LNG trades in normal times—for 60 days. But industry leaders say the lack of detail on safe routes, timings, and mine clearance operations means the security situation remains volatile for vessels attempting to pass through the critical waterway.

Ship transits via Hormuz have fallen by 90% during the war, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data. As of 1620 GMT on June 15, only six general cargo ships, one LNG tanker, one bitumen carrier, and no oil tankers had transited Hormuz. That's a dramatic drop from the roughly 135 ships a day—including 46-47 oil tankers—that used the Hormuz waterway in February before the Iran war began. Since the Middle East war broke out Feb. 28, the UN's International Maritime Organization had recorded 46 maritime security incidents as of June 11, leading to the deaths of 14 seafarers. Currently, 20,000 seafarers remain stranded on 500 ships within the Persian Gulf, according to the International Chamber of Shipping, while Commodities at Sea data showed 140 oil tankers in the Gulf, though the actual number could be much higher when ships not transmitting location data are counted.

"The statements by the US and Iran are currently unclear and do not offer sufficient information regarding key aspects such as timings and safe routes," said Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at BIMCO, the world's largest shipowners' organization by direct membership. "Due to lack of details and a history of overly optimistic reassurances, we believe the security situation for the shipping industry remains volatile, and we still consider it very risky for ships to commence transits at this point." Security consultancy Vanguard tech noted that "the agreement has not yet been formally signed, key details remain unpublished," adding that mine clearance operations, transit arrangements, and wider normalization of maritime traffic "could take weeks rather than days." IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said the peace deal represents "an important step toward restoring safety" but warned that "its implementation will require time to ensure that all necessary safety and security guarantees are in place."

The cautious response from shipping officials reflects both the incomplete nature of the truce and the complex logistics of reopening a waterway that's been effectively closed for months. The shipping crisis has led to higher energy prices and freight rates as many analysts warned of potential oil demand destruction if the conflict is not resolved. The peace agreement news came just days after the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile six nautical miles east of Oman June 12, underscoring the ongoing dangers. Iran has allowed a small number of ships to sail through Hormuz via the Iranian coast under a toll system, while warning of mine risks for transits via the IMO-established Traffic Separation Scheme, widely used before the war. Disagreement over tolls has already emerged, with Iran's foreign ministry spokesman saying Iran will receive fees for navigation services, environmental protection, and ship insurance, while US President Donald Trump said at a press conference June 15 that the deal does not allow Iran to collect tolls on passing ships.

Security conditions are "moving towards a managed reopening rather than an immediate confirmed return to unrestricted commercial transit," Vanguard tech said. BIMCO's Larsen said the UN ideally should direct the resumption of maritime traffic as a neutral body, clarifying matters like safe routes, measures to separate traffic, and ship security procedures. International Chamber of Shipping Secretary General Thomas Kazakos emphasized that "we must see a permanent return to vessels being able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz unimpeded without paying a toll or other clearance mechanism." For now, the thousands of seafarers stranded in the Persian Gulf and the hundreds of oil tankers waiting to move will have to wait weeks—not days—before Hormuz is truly open for business again.