San Diego now takes nearly three hours to respond to vandalism calls, a delay driven by unfilled officer positions that stem from ballooning retirement costs consuming city budgets. An analysis published August 28, 2026 by the Pacific Research Institute argues that escalating pension payments are crowding out funds cities need to hire rank-and-file officers, leaving departments understaffed and response times climbing. The report contends that what looks like a recruiting problem is actually a budget problem: cities can't hire officers they can't afford, regardless of how many qualified applicants exist.
The numbers paint a stark picture across California's largest cities. Long Beach saw response times for second- and third-priority calls—including theft and arson—increase by more than 20 minutes between 2021 and 2024, with the department carrying 155 vacancies representing roughly 20% of its force. Sacramento's police force stands at 639 officers, about 411 short of the 1,050 needed for a city its size, according to the local police union president cited in the report. San Diego's financial position deteriorated sharply: the city's unrestricted net position—money available for discretionary use—hit negative $2.1 billion in fiscal year 2024-25, which equals a negative $1,500 per resident and represents a 10.1% worsening from the previous year's negative $1.9 billion. Looking ahead, San Diego projects budget deficits could total $1.03 billion from 2026 to 2030, while Los Angeles faces similar fiscal strain heading into the 2028 Olympic Games.
The report traces the staffing crisis directly to pension obligations that have exploded over two decades. A 2018 Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research study cited in the analysis found that employer pension contributions expanded on average 400% between 2002-03 and 2017-18, meaning contributions in nominal dollars became five times greater. According to the Pacific Research Institute report, San Diego's deficit "largely reflects the combined Pension Liabilities of $3.2 billion, combined with" retiree medical benefits of $409 million, totaling $3.6 billion in pension and post-employment benefit liabilities. The Peace Officers Research Association of California, a major lobby group for higher police compensation, acknowledged in a 2025 staffing report that "fewer officers mean less law enforcement availability to respond to calls," but the report argues the union ignored why those vacancies persist.
The mechanism behind the crisis is straightforward: when personnel costs consume a growing share of municipal budgets, fewer dollars remain to hire and retain rank-and-file officers, leaving vacancies unfilled and response times climbing. San Diego's dire financial situation has forced hiring freezes and significant departmental cuts, including to public safety budgets that are typically protected—and those hiring freezes are exactly how budget problems become staffing shortages, with vacant positions staying vacant and retirements going unreplaced. The report notes that San Diego voters approved pension reform by 66% in 2012, but public worker unions later undid it through the courts. Meanwhile, California's legislature is moving forward with bills that would gut a 2011 pension reform law and create a deferred retirement program allowing employees to retire while still working, then leave with a lump-sum payment—measures the report warns will impose increasing costs on localities already facing budget crises.
The report concludes that without statewide pension reform modeled on San Diego's voter-approved measure but crafted to withstand legal challenges, the debate will shift from whether cities want more officers to whether they can afford them. Budget deterioration and staffing shortages aren't separate problems—they're the same problem, and as cities enter a period of mounting deficits, that tradeoff will become even more severe.