Michigan women have 0.79 fewer children on average than they say they want, and the state's childcare regulations may be partly to blame. According to a report from the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, Michigan ranks 25th nationally in overall childcare regulatory strictness but 44th when it comes to staff-to-child ratios for young children. The analysis draws on the Archbridge Institute's index of childcare regulations across all 50 states, which measured four requirements: child-to-staff ratios, group size limits, and mandatory employee education and training rules.

The data shows Michigan's requirements are significantly stricter than national averages for toddlers. For children aged 18 to 24 months, Michigan requires one adult per four kids, while the national average is 5.5 children per adult. The gap widens for two- to two-and-a-half-year-olds: Michigan still mandates one adult per four children, but the national average is 7.2. Thirty-seven states allow ratios of five or six children per adult for the younger age group, including neighboring Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Ohio. From 2000 to 2020, Michigan's population grew by just over 1%, compared to about 18% growth for the United States as a whole.

The report finds that more stringent regulations are linked to fewer childcare providers, with the largest impact in lower-income markets. Prior research cited in the analysis shows that increased regulations decreased the number of places offering childcare, and the centers that survived didn't expand their services, so total options for parents declined. Researchers also found some evidence that childcare regulations affect the "fertility gap," the difference between how many children women want and how many they actually have. According to the study, the regulatory requirement that matters most is staff-to-child ratios for children from 18 months to 5 years old.

The report explains that tighter regulations make childcare more expensive without necessarily improving quality or safety. There's no evidence that Michigan's stricter regulations have led to higher quality or safer childcare services compared to other states, the authors note. Other research found that childcare regulations designed to boost quality don't accomplish that goal but instead drive up costs. The analysis argues this matters because Michigan's near-stagnant population growth affects job creation, tax system stability, and school enrollment. The report concludes that by reforming Michigan's childcare laws to match national norms, policymakers can make it easier for entrepreneurs to enter the childcare market and lower costs for parents, which will have a positive effect on population growth. Moving toward the national average would help address both childcare availability and the state's demographic challenges.