If Europe adopted air conditioning at rates similar to North America, the continent could avoid roughly 26,000 heat-related deaths each summer, according to a new analysis published June 25, 2026 by Roger Pielke Jr., a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. The report examines how Europe's resistance to widespread air conditioning installation—driven by energy policies that prioritize passive cooling and insulation—translates directly into preventable deaths during increasingly hot summers. While Europe enjoys both greater wealth and cooler climates than most inhabited regions, it records the world's highest per capita heat-death rate among rich nations.
The numbers paint a stark picture. Europe has warmed by roughly 0.5°C per decade since the 1980s, and days with "strong heat stress"—a feels-like temperature of 32°C or higher—have risen sharply since the mid-1980s, with 2022 through 2024 ranking as the highest on record. Summer 2022 saw an estimated 68,000 heat-related deaths across Europe, followed by roughly 50,800 in 2023 and 62,800 in 2024. The WHO European Region reports that heat mortality has climbed about 30 percent over two decades. Yet household air conditioning penetration sits at just 19 percent across Europe, compared with 76 percent in North America and more than 90 percent in Japan. The report finds that heat deaths concentrate almost entirely among the elderly: people over 80 account for about two-thirds of European heat deaths, and those over 65 represent roughly 93 percent. In the U.K. and Germany, household AC penetration is just 5 percent and 3 percent respectively, while France sits at 25 percent—far below Spain's and Italy's levels, which hover around 66 percent and 35 percent.
The analysis draws on research by Barreca and colleagues who tracked American states before and after air conditioning spread, holding local climate constant, and found that increased AC penetration caused the risk of dying on an extremely hot day to drop by about three-quarters. Pielke applies that 75 percent protective effect to Europe's current death toll, calculating that raising AC coverage to 40 percent—still below today's Spanish or Italian levels—would save roughly 6,000 to 8,000 lives annually. Near-universal coverage would prevent around 35,000 deaths each summer. The report notes that most European heat victims are older adults, often over 80, with cardiovascular or respiratory disease, living alone in poorly insulated housing, and most die indoors at home. In British Columbia's 2021 heat dome, 98 percent of the 619 deaths occurred indoors, 67 percent of victims were 70 or older, 56 percent lived alone, and 93 percent had no air conditioning.
According to the report, Europe's low AC penetration reflects policies that "actively deter cooling," driven by what the author describes as an energy-degrowth ideology that treats every kilowatt-hour as a vice rather than a benefit for human life. EU regulations require new buildings to meet near-zero energy use, effectively making AC installation prohibitively expensive. France's energy performance certificate system downgrades a home's rating if it includes air conditioning, reducing resale value. Geneva issues roughly four residential AC permits per year, requiring applicants to prove "unacceptable thermal discomfort" and explore all passive alternatives first. Spain and Italy imposed emergency thermostat limits during 2022's energy crisis. The report argues that expanding AC wouldn't necessarily undermine climate goals: air conditioning demand peaks during daylight and evening hours when solar energy is most available, and France's already-decarbonized grid could scale up. Electrifying cars and home heating is projected to raise European electricity demand by roughly 1,500 terawatt-hours annually by 2050—a 40 percent increase the EU has committed to under existing plans—making the incremental demand from air conditioning manageable. The report concludes that the larger obstacle isn't technology or cost, but that cooling technologies have taken on a moral framing as a vice among policymakers, particularly in Germany, the U.K., and France—the countries with the loudest champions of energy restraint and the most potential to save lives through expanded AC access.