Singapore has approved 9.25 gigawatts of low-carbon electricity import capacity across six regional corridors, but imports are expected to reach only 15% of the country's electricity generation mix by 2035—roughly half the one-third target set by the Energy Market Authority, according to a new analysis from Wood Mackenzie. The findings appear in the firm's latest report, *Green Electrons Are Waiting to Cross the Border to Singapore: 2026 Update*, released this month. Despite government approvals totaling more than 9 gigawatts, not a single project under EMA's low-carbon framework has reached financial close or begun construction.
The data reveals sharp disparities across the six import corridors. Indonesia accounts for 37% of the approved pipeline with six projects holding Conditional Licences that confirm technical and commercial viability, yet progress has largely stalled. Malaysia has emerged as the only corridor with a credible path to delivery this decade, with EMA approving 900 megawatts from Johor in August 2026—including 300 megawatts to Sembcorp Utilities for floating solar and battery storage, and 600 megawatts to Ditrolic Energy's Southern Solar Alliance, backed by BlackRock's Climate Finance Partnership and the International Finance Corporation. Vietnam, Cambodia, and Australia collectively represent 43% of the approved pipeline, but all remain at the Conditional Approval stage with no visible construction timeline. Nearly half the total pipeline is classified as long-dated and high risk.
According to Wei Han Tan, Research Analyst for Southeast Asia Power and Renewables at Wood Mackenzie, "the most significant challenges for EMA lie in export permit frameworks, project bankability, cross-border transmission financing, and the lack of a complete market mechanism that allows Singapore buyers to claim the carbon value of imported electricity." The report finds that imported power must compete with the Uniform Singapore Energy Price, currently about S$250 per megawatt-hour, while domestic gas already includes a carbon tax. Projects also require a certificate framework so buyers can claim the carbon benefits of imported low-carbon electricity—a framework still under development. Tan notes that "the projects that get built will be those that can secure an Importer License from EMA, demonstrate their ability to deliver firm power at an annual load factor of at least 60% and offer a price that offtakers are willing to commit long term," adding that "no project in the pipeline has cleared all three hurdles yet."
The outlook varies sharply by corridor, driven by regulatory and infrastructure realities. Indonesia's progress hinges on whether the government can extend Danantara's strategic commodity export mechanism to electricity exports—a key watch point after the sovereign wealth fund signed memoranda of understanding with Keppel Electric, Sembcorp Utilities, and SGEI in July 2026. Malaysia's existing high-voltage direct current interconnector provides up to 1 gigawatt of bidirectional capacity, bypassing the global cable supply bottleneck affecting other corridors, and the Sembcorp project could achieve initial imports by 2029 through existing infrastructure. Vietnam has no legal mechanism for a foreign developer to build generation and export it via a dedicated subsea cable, despite Decree 272 opening offshore wind to foreign investment in July 2026. Cambodia has shown no publicly visible progress in more than three years and lacks both an export regulatory framework and surplus generation, with two-thirds of households facing regular blackouts. Sun Cable's Australia-Asia Power Link faces the constraint that around 3,700 kilometers of its 4,500-kilometer cable route crosses Indonesian territorial waters, and the survey permit approved in 2025 doesn't authorize cable laying.
The report concludes that Singapore generates up to 95% of its electricity from natural gas and has limited land for utility-scale renewables, making EMA's import scheme essential to the country's decarbonization strategy. The 6-gigawatt objective would meet about one-third of projected demand and serves as a central pillar of that strategy. Yet EMA's September 2026 request for proposals raised the number of hydrogen-ready combined-cycle gas turbine units planned for 2032 from two to five, in addition to the 600 megawatts already approved for 2027 and 2029, signaling that gas-fired power will continue playing a major role in keeping electricity supply steady as the nation manages rising demand and its transition to cleaner energy. Projects unlikely to become significant import sources before the second half of the next decade now represent nearly half the approved capacity.