Nigeria could double the amount of capital flowing into its energy sector within five years, according to Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency. Birol made the projection Thursday during a visit to Abuja, where he said the country's recent admission as an associate member of the Paris-based energy watchdog could help draw more investment, expand technical partnerships, and bolster Nigeria's standing in global energy policy conversations. The comments arrived less than a month after the IEA's Governing Board unanimously approved Nigeria's entry into the organization as an association country, marking a major expansion of the agency's work with Africa's most populous nation and one of its largest energy producers.
Nigeria is working to nearly double its crude oil production to 3 million barrels per day by 2030, a goal that will require sustained reforms, better infrastructure, stronger security, and efforts to reduce oil theft. The country is also looking to attract fresh capital after years of underinvestment across its oil and gas industry, while creating new opportunities in renewable energy, especially solar power. Refined petroleum exports to Europe from Nigeria surged roughly 767% to 130,000 barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, up from 15,000 barrels per day in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration citing Vortexa data. The jump was driven largely by rising output from the Dangote refinery.
Birol said his ambition was to see capital flowing into Nigeria's energy sector rise significantly following the country's closer cooperation with the IEA. "My goal is, in a very short period of time, in five years, at least doubling the energy investments Nigeria is receiving today," Birol told reporters. The IEA chief said Nigeria's vast energy resources and shifting global energy trade patterns could make the country increasingly attractive to governments and private investors searching for dependable energy partners. He added that trust had become one of the most important factors shaping global energy relationships amid disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts and instability along major supply routes. "The most scarce commodity is not oil, not gas, not uranium, not lithium. It is trust. Countries are looking for partners they can rely on," he said. Birol described Nigeria as a credible energy supplier, noting that exports from the Dangote refinery had helped ease fuel supply pressures in Europe in recent months.
Nigeria has ramped up efforts in recent months to attract new investment into its energy sector through regulatory reforms and new offshore oil and gas projects. On August 11, President Bola Tinubu approved a landmark deep offshore investment reform aimed at unlocking up to $50 billion in new investment across Nigeria's offshore oil and gas sector, according to the report. The reform replaced the longstanding system of project-by-project negotiations with a more transparent, rules-based investment framework designed to improve Nigeria's competitiveness for globally mobile capital. The framework will support the next generation of deep offshore projects, beginning with the proposed Bonga South West project, estimated at roughly $10 billion. Meanwhile, ExxonMobil and its partners committed $1 billion to the Usan Infill Project in Nigeria's offshore oil sector in July, with the project expected to boost the country's crude oil production by about 40,000 barrels per day. The combination of IEA membership, regulatory overhaul, and major project commitments positions Nigeria to reverse years of capital drought and cement its role as a trusted supplier in a world where reliability matters as much as reserves.