The average distance traveled by truckloads has fallen 11% over the past year and 21% since June 2024, dropping from approximately 607 miles to just above 500 miles, according to a FreightWaves analysis published Saturday. The report, written by Zach Strickland using SONAR freight market data, examines what appears to be a sustained structural shift in how shippers use trucks rather than a temporary market fluctuation. The trend stands out for its longevity and linear consistency, unlike most freight patterns that emerge sharply or follow seasonal cycles.
The data reveals that loaded international container volumes on rail were up approximately 11% year-over-year last week, while domestic container volumes climbed 14%. Tender rejections — when trucking companies decline freight offers — sit at multi-year highs above 17%, and spot rates are surging across all three main trailer types. Truckload demand itself has strengthened by roughly 10–15% year-over-year in early June, yet the shrinking haul distances suggest trucks are being cycled more frequently on shorter routes. Most of the demand fueling the current truckload market has come from moves under 250 miles, pushing carriers toward a more regionalized approach. Intermodal contract savings averaged between 10% and 20% in 2024 and 2025, but that gap has widened rapidly this year as truckload rates have climbed.
The report finds that one driver of deteriorating load lengths is the loss of market share to railroads in the form of intermodal freight, which holds a strong cost advantage over trucking on longer transcontinental lanes but struggles to compete on shorter distances. According to the analysis, intermodal has a cost advantage but service favors trucking due to its ability to move directly in and out of shipper facilities with fewer touchpoints. The report notes that intermodal pricing is closely tied to truckload rates, as railroads and carriers won't leave money on the table, and rates are expected to rise for intermodal this year but not enough to push loads back to trucking.
The reason this trend matters is capacity utilization. A load moving from Los Angeles to Chicago covers roughly 2,000 miles and occupies three to four days of a single truck's time, while a load from Atlanta to Nashville covers around 250 miles and takes roughly half a day. Longer haul distances tie up more capacity because trucks can't pick up other freight during extended transit times. The shrinking length of haul should have freed up capacity over the past two years, yet the market remains tight with high rejection rates and surging spot prices. The report attributes the recent trend to a disproportionate growth in short-distance moves rather than modal shift alone. Global disruptions have played a role: Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have altered shipping lanes for multiple years, and unpredictable U.S. trade policy has led companies to import goods well ahead of expected demand in a just-in-case inventory strategy that favors slower rail transit. According to the Logistics Managers' Index, inventory levels are now being managed just above replenishment as carrying costs have surged, yet this shift hasn't pushed load lengths higher because imports remain low relative to the previous two years.
Looking ahead, the report raises the question of whether trucking will see a surge in long-haul demand later in the year that further deepens the current capacity crunch. Most retail freight that dominates the fourth quarter arrives via ship in August and September, and a last-minute import flood could strain transportation networks later in 2026. But the analysis suggests such a surge is unlikely to persist, as supply chains have been permanently altered to some degree. The report concludes that the trend looks more like a shift in how shippers utilize trucks as they adapt their supply chain management strategies, suggesting a more permanent alteration of the market rather than a temporary blip that could reverse.