As Americans approach the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence in a "pretty foul mood," a new op-ed by Jonah Goldberg at the American Enterprise Institute argues that the nation is in far better shape than it was during the bicentennial in 1976. Writing in the Los Angeles Times on June 10, 2026, Goldberg, a senior fellow at AEI, points out that despite widespread pessimism, America today faces lower crime, better health outcomes, and stronger economic conditions than it did 50 years ago—even though public perception suggests the opposite.
The data tells a story that contradicts popular sentiment. In New York City, the homicide rate was five times higher in 1976 than today, with 1,622 murders recorded that year compared to just 309 in 2025. So far in 2026, murders in the city are down about 25% from the same point last year. Goldberg cites polling data from Gallup showing that Americans' views of nationwide crime have averaged 43 percentage points higher than their views of local crime since 2000—nearly half think crime is a serious national issue, but only about 1 in 10 consider it a big problem in their own communities. A 2025 Federal Reserve survey found only a quarter of Americans thought the economy was doing well, yet three-quarters said they were personally doing OK. The infant mortality rate was three times higher in 1976 and 13 times higher in 1926 compared to today.
According to Goldberg, the disconnect between personal experience and national perception stems from how information is filtered. "What we think about the country is often filtered through the media (mainstream, partisan and social—all of which have a bad news bias)," he writes, while perceptions of personal life come from firsthand experience. The report notes that 50 years ago, America faced "inflation, gas lines, crime, unemployment, political violence, race relations, geopolitical tensions—including the just concluded Vietnam War" that were far worse than current conditions. Goldberg identifies nostalgia—which "literally means homesickness, but homesickness for the past"—as a key driver of this misperception, pointing out that "lots of people always think things were better 50 years ago" and that this pattern has persisted since polling began.
Goldberg explains that the gap between perception and reality isn't just a natural human quirk—it's actively exploited. "Political demagogues, activists, journalists and big corporations seek to exploit or monetize the natural human tendency to pine for simpler, happier times," he writes, borrowing a phrase from the Roman poet Horace: laudator temporis acti, or "a praiser of times past when he was a boy." The problem, Goldberg argues, isn't that Americans lack real problems—"We obviously do," he concedes—but that solutions can't be found "by looking in the rearview mirror." Cherry-picking the good from the past while ignoring the bad, he warns, means "you're not studying the past. You're grading the present against a past that never was."
The takeaway is clear: nostalgia is a poor policy guide. While the past is worth studying, Goldberg cautions that Americans who believe easy answers lie in returning to an idealized earlier era are chasing a mirage. The data shows measurable progress on crime, health, and personal economic well-being over the past 50 years, even as public sentiment suggests decline. Understanding which complaints have "empirical weight" and which are driven by media narratives and nostalgia is essential to solving real problems rather than imaginary ones.