Seattle voters will decide in November whether to double a local transit tax, but the actual cost per household may be six times higher than city officials claim, according to a report published by the Washington Policy Center. The City Council voted to place a 0.3% sales tax on the ballot, twice the current 0.15% rate set to expire in April 2027, with officials saying it will cost the typical two-person household just $58 annually. The report warns that the real average cost is $351 per household each year, totaling more than $3,500 over the tax's ten-year life.
The proposed tax would generate roughly $138 million each year to fund Metro bus service in Seattle, according to the report. Metro already collects more than $650 million annually from a countywide sales tax, plus state and federal grants and fare revenue that push the total budget well above a billion dollars per year. If approved, the increase would raise Seattle's total sales tax to 10.8%, making it the highest rate among major U.S. cities. Census data for the Puget Sound region shows that only 9.4% of low-income residents use transit to commute, meaning 90% would pay the tax without receiving much benefit. Between 2012 and 2024, Metro's total revenue adjusted for inflation climbed more than 40%, yet ridership dropped 27% during the same period. Metro's operating costs now exceed $250 per service hour, and fare revenue covered less than 10% of operating costs in 2024, down from roughly 30% a dozen years ago.
The report notes that city leaders quickly settled on the maximum tax increase allowed under state law and chose to spend all of it on transit rather than directing a portion toward Seattle's underfunded street and bridge maintenance. The city's own transportation department analysis shows that postponing overdue street preservation leads to much higher costs later, meaning the condition of Seattle's roads will keep getting worse and taxpayers will eventually face additional tax increases to pay for repairs. The report finds that the City Council debated at length which transit services and facilities to fund with the $138 million per year but never addressed "the crucial question of whether those expenditures would actually increase ridership."
The sales tax is often described as progressive because transit is viewed as a progressive public service, but the report argues it's actually highly regressive and "hits the working poor hardest." While the tax proposal includes funding for subsidized transit passes that benefit bus riders, it doesn't help the majority of working-poor residents who drive to work. Much of the decline in transit ridership has been blamed on the COVID pandemic, but the shift to remote work, shopping, and entertainment isn't reversing. As a result, the city may double the subsidy without getting double the service, and it's unclear whether ridership will grow at all. The report also notes that Metro's fare recovery ratio has been trending downward even before the pandemic, meaning taxpayers now cover 90% of service costs.
The report concludes that Seattle residents facing tax fatigue from recent increases should carefully weigh whether the transit services funded by the tax justify the higher costs all consumers in the city will bear. City officials don't appear to have seriously considered Metro's ridership decline and rising cost trends when crafting the proposal. With the measure now heading to voters, the question is whether $138 million per year in additional subsidies can reverse a decade-long pattern of falling ridership and climbing costs.