Misleading statistics about a criminal justice diversion program called LEAD helped secure nearly $100 million in federal funding over the past decade, according to a report published by the Washington Policy Center. The analysis finds that promoters of the Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion model consistently inflated the program's effectiveness in reducing crime, presenting Congress and state lawmakers with success rates roughly double what the original research indicated. Those exaggerated claims directly influenced federal legislation and appropriations that spread the program to over 20 states.
Since 2015, LEAD advocates have marketed the program as reducing criminal reoffending by 58%, a figure more than twice what the actual study suggests, the report says. The original research showed mixed and uncertain results, with no statistically significant differences between LEAD and non-LEAD participants for key measures including total charges and street arrests. A 2015 congressional hearing featured testimony claiming an 80% reduction in reoffending among Seattle LEAD participants—roughly four times higher than what the study mentioned. Representative Suzan DelBene introduced a 2016 amendment to the CARA Act claiming LEAD reduces recidivism "by as much as 60 percent," a statement Republicans repeated during floor debate. By 2018, the program was receiving federal appropriations by name, eventually totaling nearly $100 million, plus additional millions in state and local funding.
The report's author, Eric Zimmerman, director of public safety solutions policy at Washington Policy Center, said Washington's congressional delegation was misled and should redirect future funding to programs with better evidence of reducing crime and treating addiction. The initial LEAD study exaggerates its benefits and shows that non-warrant arrests and total charges revealed no statistically significant differences between the LEAD and non-LEAD groups, according to the report. Between 2015 and 2026, thousands of elected officials received false versions of LEAD's evidence, with many subsequently voting to change laws and appropriate hundreds of millions of dollars for the model, resulting in wasted resources and criminals escaping consequences, the analysis states.
The pattern of inflated claims persisted for more than a decade because bipartisan members of a 2015 House Judiciary subcommittee became some of LEAD's strongest congressional supporters after hearing the misleading testimony, the report explains. Those lawmakers helped push LEAD into federal law and appropriations in 2016 and 2017. The program's design flaws weakened the study's findings, but promoters continued headlining false versions of the research in government meetings through August 2026. LEAD diverts people who use drugs and commit crimes away from arrest and jail toward social services, without requiring participation beyond an initial intake and information release—a light-touch approach that the report suggests hasn't delivered the promised reductions in criminal behavior.
Zimmerman calls for Congress to begin immediate scrutiny of LEAD funding. The report documents that promoters continued presenting inflated success rates until Washington Policy Center published its analysis in 2026, ending an 11-year pattern of falsehoods that shaped criminal justice policy nationwide. With federal appropriations approaching $100 million and state and local spending adding many millions more, the financial stakes of the misleading claims are substantial—and the opportunity cost of funding programs with weak evidence may have left communities less safe than alternatives would have achieved.