California likely voters oppose a proposed billionaire wealth tax by a 50% to 35% margin, even as Democrat Xavier Becerra holds a commanding 17-point lead in the governor's race, according to a new survey released by the Manhattan Institute. The poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters statewide and 449 in Los Angeles between September 24 and October 1, 2026, reveals a core tension in California politics: strong Democratic electoral performance coexists with widespread frustration about the state's handling of major challenges and skepticism toward progressive policies.

The survey finds just 32% of California voters believe their state is moving in a better direction than others, while 45% say it's headed in a worse direction. More than four in five Californians—81% statewide and 83% in Los Angeles—say the state faces a bigger homelessness crisis than its peers. A majority, 56%, describe California as less business-friendly than other states, compared with only 14% who say it's more welcoming to business. Pluralities rate the state negatively on infrastructure (43% say worse than other states versus 16% better), public safety (37% less safe versus 23% safer), and corruption (42% say bigger problem versus 18% smaller). Both Governor Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris carry negative net favorability ratings among voters in their home state, with Newsom viewed unfavorably by 52% and favorably by 46%, while Harris registers 50% unfavorable and 47% favorable. Nearly one in four of Harris's own 2024 voters—24%—view her unfavorably despite her comfortable victory in California as the Democratic presidential nominee.

The report finds that voters reject the narrative linking homelessness primarily to housing costs. By a 60% to 29% margin statewide, Californians attribute homelessness mainly to substance addiction and mental health issues rather than affordability, with Los Angeles voters reaching the same conclusion 61% to 30%. Nearly two-thirds of Californians—63%—would support limiting the power of public-sector unions if doing so would improve accountability and service delivery, including majorities of independents (62%) and Democrats (53%). More than seven in ten voters express concern about waste, fraud, and abuse in California's welfare system, and a majority of Californians—53%—say the state should crack down on such problems rather than make it easier for eligible people to obtain benefits.

The survey suggests that Democratic strength at the ballot box shouldn't be interpreted as an endorsement of the governing approach or current performance. Cost of living dominates voter concerns, with nearly half—47%—identifying it as the most important issue facing the state, far ahead of government waste and corruption at 17%. The generational divide on the wealth tax proposal is stark: voters aged 18 to 29 support Proposition 40 at 50%, while those 50 to 64 and 65-plus oppose it at 72% each. Even among Democrats, support for the billionaire tax is far from unanimous, with the party backing it 50% to 31% and nearly one in five undecided. Roughly seven in ten voters express either opposition to continued spending on projects like California High-Speed Rail or skepticism about the state's ability to deliver them successfully, with only 25% saying the state should keep investing despite cost overruns and delays.

The findings indicate that California voters are looking for reform and more effective governance across issues ranging from homelessness and public-sector unions to welfare administration, infrastructure, and taxation. Voters continue to prefer Democratic candidates while simultaneously expressing dissatisfaction with the state's trajectory and openness to policies that depart from its progressive reputation. The Los Angeles mayoral race remains fluid, with City Councilmember Nithya Raman holding just a three-point edge over incumbent Karen Bass when undecided voters are pressed to choose, and half of third-place finisher Spencer Pratt's primary supporters saying they plan not to vote in the race at all. Democratic electoral dominance in California, the report concludes, masks a more complicated reality of voter preferences that favor practical solutions over ideological consistency.