Rising housing costs caused about 13 million fewer births in the United States between 1990 and 2020, according to a June 10, 2026 blog post from the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. The post synthesizes recent academic research showing that zoning reform and increased housing supply can reverse this trend by making homes more affordable and restoring fertility rates that have declined sharply over three decades.
The data paints a stark picture of housing's impact on family formation. A 2024 paper examining 14 countries from 1870 to 2012 found that higher housing costs decreased fertility rates across the board. More recent U.S. evidence shows that about half of the fertility decline from 2000 to 2019 was caused by high housing prices, according to economist Benjamin Couillard's 2026 research. On the supply side, the numbers show building works: a 2020 Federal Reserve study of nearly 1,500 new apartment buildings with 50 or more units in 11 major cities found that rents in surrounding low-income areas fell by at least 5%. Austin, Texas saw rents nearly double from 2010 to 2019, but after the city relaxed building policies in 2015, about 120,000 new units were constructed between 2015 and 2024. Austin's rents were 15% above the national average in 2021 but dropped to 4% below that mark by January 2026. Auckland, New Zealand eased zoning restrictions on about three-fourths of its residential land in 2016, and six years later, rent for a three-bedroom dwelling had fallen by more than 25%.
The report cites political scientist Mike Munger's observation that "All housing is affordable housing." The mechanism is straightforward: if a developer builds one hundred million-dollar homes, those buyers vacate one hundred other houses, freeing up housing stock that cascades down the market. A Biden-Harris administration report on housing affordability from 2024 noted that "more relaxed zoning restrictions lead to a higher supply of smaller, lower-cost housing, and, in at least some instances, can lead to lower prices and rents or slower growth in rents among existing housing." A recent review of academic research reached an unsurprising conclusion: "Increases in housing supply reduce rents or slow the growth in rents in the region."
The report warns that falling fertility creates a fiscal time bomb. As birth rates drop, government programs face mounting pressure, which can increase the tax burden on everyone. Most innovations come from younger generations, so declining fertility can mean less entrepreneurship and falling productivity. But the report argues this future isn't inevitable. Reforming zoning regulations and other legal restrictions can free builders to construct more homes, making housing affordable not just for today but for the future. Other states are already building more than Michigan, and catching up means more than cheaper rent—it means more babies, more innovation, and a sustainable economic future.