The United States is on track to shatter its natural gas production record this year, with output expected to reach 122.5 billion cubic feet per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook. That would surpass the previous high of 118.5 billion cubic feet per day set just last year. The nation has held the title of world's largest natural gas producer every year from 2009 through 2024, the most recent period for which global data is available.
During the first six months of 2026, marketed natural gas production averaged 121.3 billion cubic feet per day, a 4% increase over the same stretch in 2025, representing a gain of 4.6 billion cubic feet per day. Nearly all of this growth came from two regions: the Permian basin spanning Texas and New Mexico, and the Haynesville formation covering Louisiana and Texas. The Permian is forecast to produce 29.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, a 6% jump from 2025 levels. The Haynesville saw production climb 1.1 billion cubic feet per day, or 7%, in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, and the region is expected to post a 9% annual increase totaling 1.3 billion cubic feet per day for the full year.
The report attributes Permian expansion primarily to rising crude oil prices, which drive associated natural gas output as a byproduct of oil drilling. West Texas Intermediate crude averaged $65 per barrel in 2025 but rose to $84 per barrel through July 2026, well above the breakeven thresholds of $69 per barrel for the Midland Basin and $63 per barrel for the Delaware Basin, as reported by oil executives in the Dallas Fed Energy survey. In the Haynesville, drilling is motivated by natural gas prices rather than oil, with the Henry Hub spot price forecast to average $3.44 per million British thermal units in 2026, down just 2% or 8 cents from the prior year. The report notes that at this price level, Haynesville operations remain profitable despite drilling costs associated with wells reaching depths between 10,500 and 13,500 feet, making it one of the deepest formations in the Lower 48 states.
The surge in Permian gas comes from two reinforcing trends. Higher oil prices have made drilling economically attractive, and the resulting boom in extraction has lowered reservoir pressure, which makes natural gas easier to pull out than oil, boosting the gas-to-oil ratio over time. In the Haynesville, geography matters as much as geology: the formation sits close to liquefied natural gas export terminals and major industrial gas consumers along the Gulf Coast, pulling operators toward active drilling despite the higher costs of reaching deep reserves. The combination of favorable pricing, reservoir mechanics, and strategic location is sustaining growth even as benchmark prices hold relatively steady.
Looking ahead, the forecast shows U.S. natural gas production continuing its climb through 2026, driven by oil market strength in the Permian and steady demand fundamentals supporting Haynesville activity. The modest decline in Henry Hub prices hasn't dampened drilling economics, and the infrastructure advantage along the Gulf Coast keeps Haynesville competitive. With output already 4% ahead of last year's pace and both major producing regions expanding, the U.S. is poised to extend its global production lead into a second decade.