U.S. data center electricity demand could reach 207 GW by 2033 under a forecast tied to expected AI chip shipments, according to a new analysis from BloombergNEF published July 28, 2026. The projection underscores mounting uncertainty about the scale of the nation's data center expansion, with two separate scenarios for 2030 alone differing by 42 GW—more than four times New York City's peak load. The firm's base case, which models projects considered likely to be built, anticipates 118 GW of demand in 2030 and 194 GW by 2035, revisions upward of 52% and 83% respectively from its December outlook.
Actual installed capacity at the end of 2025 topped 47 GW, running 16% higher than BNEF had anticipated and prompting the researchers to recalibrate their models. Demand in 2025 was nearly 50 GW and is on track to more than double within five years, according to Senior Associate Nathalie Limandibhratha, who said the firm has added roughly 100 GW of project capacity to its tracking pipeline over the past year. Almost every U.S. region finished 2025 with more data center capacity than forecast, with Texas showing the largest gap: BNEF had estimated 7.4 GW in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas footprint, but actual demand reached 8.9 GW. The PJM Interconnection registered the highest demand of any region, with about 16 GW at year-end. The gap between the two 2033 forecasts widens to 63 GW, driven by uncertainty over data center size, power availability, and developer efficiency improvements.
"BNEF underestimated installed data-center capacity in 2025," the firm acknowledged in the report. Just a year ago, a 1-GW project was viewed as large, but the pipeline now contains more than 70 projects at or above 1 GW, with some reaching multiple gigawatts and a few approaching 10 GW, Limandibhratha noted. That shift is "really skewing the project pipeline, and kind of ballooning and leading to the upwards revision," she said. BNEF's base outlook sits in the middle of third-party estimates, which span about 100 GW for 2030, with S&P forecasting demand above 180 GW.
The challenges in forecasting stem from the rapid evolution of the market and the sheer scale of projects now under development. Data center sizes have exploded, flooding the market with new developers and massive facilities that dwarf anything anticipated even 12 months ago. A recent Bank of America analysis suggests the U.S. could need more than 230 GW of new generating capacity over the next five years, but regulated utilities are expected to add only about 93 GW, raising questions about how the gap will be filled. Data centers alone could contribute roughly 125 GW of new electric load during that period, according to BofA analysts. The divergence between BNEF's two scenarios—one grounded in project pipelines, the other in chip delivery schedules—reflects how difficult it's become to model demand when both the number and scale of facilities are growing faster than anticipated. With AI-driven expansion accelerating and developers pushing into regions with available power, the industry is testing the limits of forecasting tools designed for steadier growth.