The PJM Interconnection is likely to experience electricity shortages six to 100 times worse than its planning target by 2030, driven primarily by the rapid expansion of large-load data centers, according to a study commissioned by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. The analysis, produced by Synapse Energy Economics, Mondre Energy, and Aspen Technologies, examined load projections and resource adequacy across multiple scenarios through 2030. The PUC and the firms characterized the work as an independent evaluation aimed at understanding several plausible futures for the grid operator.

PJM's planning standard aims to restrict potential power shortages to roughly one incident every 10 years, measured as a loss of load expectation, or LOLE, of 0.1. In the study's reference scenario, which draws from PJM's 2026 load forecast, the projected 2030 LOLE reaches 0.59—nearly six times worse than the planning criterion. Under a worst-case scenario combining higher-than-expected load growth with limited new power supply, the modeled LOLE hits 13.20, more than 100 times worse than the target and indicating an expectation of over 13 days per year with load-shedding events. Only in a scenario with no new data centers does the region achieve PJM's target LOLE of 0.1, the report found. In models spanning 2027 through 2030, both the reference and high-load, low-supply scenarios show PJM's planning criteria for resource adequacy failing to be met.

"This analysis sends a clear warning: electricity demand and supply are moving out of balance, and the status quo is not sustainable," PUC Chairman Steve DeFrank said. The study attributes these reliability challenges largely to surging data center additions in both the reference and worst-case scenarios. PJM confirmed in a statement that it agrees with the PUC's assessment that demand continues to grow faster than generation, potentially compromising system reliability over the next five years. The grid operator said it has taken actions to both increase electricity supply and manage new demand in line with the Ratepayer Protection Pledge taken by data center developers, which aims to shield residential customers and other ratepayers from bearing reliability risks or cost increases tied to data center development.

The reference scenario anticipates Pennsylvania will remain a net energy exporter, but sees its exports declining from roughly 91 terawatt-hours in 2025 to about 69 TWh by 2035 and 38 TWh by 2040. In the high-load, low-supply scenario, Pennsylvania becomes a net importer of 5 TWh by 2040. Because this scenario includes a substantial amount of unmet load in 2031 and later years, it's likely that some of the 2035 and 2040 load will remain unserved, since there won't be enough regional generation to satisfy PJM-wide load requirements, the report states. The analysis notes that PJM and the U.S. Department of Energy have launched several initiatives to address growing concerns about resource adequacy, including interconnection queue reform and reliability backstop procurement. DOE has also committed to keeping some coal-fired power plants operating beyond their planned retirement dates to maintain regional supply.

Last month, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro issued an executive order offering preferential permitting to data center projects with peak demand exceeding 25 megawatts if they commit to certain requirements, including sourcing electricity from new power supplies. The PUC also voted unanimously to approve two motions concerning data center development and ratemaking, directing staff to propose updates to the state's rules for emergency curtailment and to organize a technical conference on cost allocation for data centers. The report's bottom line is stark: without urgent action at PJM and a broader Pennsylvania energy strategy ensuring electricity supply keeps pace with demand, the region faces a reliability crisis that could bring routine power shortages within the decade.