Low- and middle-income countries require far more energy than current access goals envision—at least 40 gigajoules per person annually to support industrialization and mechanized infrastructure, according to a new report from Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. The white paper introduces a concept called "universal energy abundance," which shifts the focus from simply connecting households to electricity toward delivering enough reliable and affordable energy to power entire economies. Current energy access definitions require only enough electricity to light a couple of bulbs and charge a phone—about 50 to 100 kilowatt-hours per person each year—leaving hospitals dependent on diesel generators and factories operating below capacity.
The report proposes three benchmark tiers based on historical patterns: basic subsistence at roughly 5 GJ per capita per year, comparable to preindustrial Europe or 1950s China; a transition to mechanization and initial industrialization at around 40 GJ per capita annually, similar to 1980s China or Japan between 1930 and 1950; and modern, highly developed economies at 100 to 150 GJ per capita yearly. As of 2023, global average per capita energy use stood at 71.6 GJ, while Africa averaged just 13.8 GJ—and sub-Saharan Africa fell well below that figure. Chad recorded the lowest level at 1.4 GJ per person, with less than 20 percent of its population accessing electricity, while Qatar consumed 737.6 GJ per capita. Most countries achieve universal electricity access by the time they cross the second tier threshold of 40 GJ, though several have managed this milestone at lower consumption levels.
Historical trajectories show that increasing per capita energy use by an order of magnitude has typically taken decades, the authors write. China spent 33 years moving from 10 GJ to 40 GJ per capita, then another 18 years reaching 100 GJ. Vietnam remained in the lowest tier for more than three decades before crossing into the second tier in 2001, then advancing to the third tier around 2022. South Korea transitioned through both middle tiers in 26 years—a comparatively rapid shift. By contrast, Nigeria and South Africa saw only modest increases over four to five decades, illustrating that "the passage of time does not translate into movement between tiers absent sound economic planning, institutional capacity, stable governance, and timely investments," according to the report.
The report explains that achieving energy abundance requires moving beyond electricity-focused metrics to account for all modern energy forms—fuels and feedstocks as well as power—since electricity represents just over one-fifth of global total final energy consumption. Highly energy-intensive sectors including heavy industry, long-haul transport, and agriculture continue to rely heavily on fuels rather than electricity alone. The authors note that a country could meet current universal electrification thresholds even while unreliable grids force hospitals onto expensive diesel generators and farmers irrigate by hand. Effective planning is critical but challenging, requiring accurate projections of demand growth, workforce capacity, infrastructure readiness, and institutional frameworks. The report cautions that constructing excessive or premature energy supply risks creating capacity without economic rationale, and society pays for that capacity one way or another.
The authors acknowledge that some low- and middle-income countries may prioritize affordability and reliability over sustainability in the near term, noting that political leaders who fail to "keep the lights on" face popular discontent and potential removal from office. However, many clean energy technologies are increasingly cost-competitive or even cost-superior, strengthening their economic appeal in numerous settings. The report calls for additional metrics beyond per capita energy use, including distributional equity, affordability, reliability, resilience against supply shocks, energy productivity measured as economic output per gigajoule, and sustainability indicators. Whether energy system development in these countries continues at its current pace or accelerates to meet abundance thresholds will depend on choices made by national governments, investors, and development partners in the years ahead.