European gas storage levels could end up below 70% heading into the 2026/27 winter season if supply disruptions continue, according to an analysis published by Wood Mackenzie. The research firm warns that historically depleted inventories, combined with renewed disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, have pushed spot prices more than 50% above their June lows and placed winter supply security at risk. Three simultaneous pressures are converging: low storage, revived Asian competition for liquefied natural gas cargoes, and minimal new supply growth over the coming year.
Storage across Europe currently sits just above 54%, a historically low level for late July, the report states. Even under a hypothetical best-case scenario—assuming Qatar reaches full operational capacity by the end of September, excluding damaged trains—European storage would reach only 75% by November 1st. That compares to a five-year average of 90% for that date. Should the Strait remain closed for another two months, storage will fall below 70%. Spot prices have already climbed more than 50% since June 12th and are now trading above €60 per megawatt-hour, equivalent to roughly $20 per million British thermal units. Asian LNG demand has returned to 2025 levels despite the shortfall in Qatari volumes, intensifying competition with Europe for available cargoes. No significant new LNG supply is expected over the next 9 to 12 months, with new Qatari capacity not coming online before the second half of 2027.
"Low European inventories, strong Asian demand and limited new LNG supply growth almost guarantee elevated prices through this winter and into 2027," said Massimo Di Odoardo, Vice President of Gas and LNG Research at Wood Mackenzie. The report finds that gas is proving more sensitive than oil to the disruption. Some emerging Asian economies face demand destruction, not just price pain—wealthier nations can absorb the cost, but lower-income markets cannot. The LNG market might only rebalance from 2028, with sustained disruption or new geopolitical risks poised to reduce both the duration and depth of the anticipated global LNG oversupply.
Wood Mackenzie's analysis explains that the supply gap won't close quickly because no major new sources are scheduled to come online soon. The report notes this isn't a repeat of 2022, when prices hit records after Russia's invasion of Ukraine removed major pipeline supply. Sustained investment in European renewables capacity since then has reduced power market exposure. But Europe is approaching energy crisis territory nonetheless. Near-term alternatives to gas remain limited, and the European Union faces a difficult calculation: pressing ahead with both a proposed ban on all Russian LNG imports from January 2027 and more stringent methane emission regulations could constrain import flexibility precisely when Europe needs it most. The global gas industry convenes at Gastech 2026 in Bangkok in September, where supply resilience will define the agenda.