The European Union has paid more than €100 billion in additional costs for energy imports since war broke out in Iran, yet received "not one extra molecule of gas or oil" for that spending, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said Tuesday at a meeting of energy ministers in Dublin. The International Energy Agency hinted that releasing more strategic oil reserves remains an option to ease supply shortages, though Executive Director Fatih Birol said it's not currently the agency's top priority. Europe faces a diesel crisis as it heads into winter, with disruptions in the Middle East compounding the continent's reliance on imports after it cut ties with Russian energy following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
The IEA has tapped 400 million barrels of crude from strategic stockpiles since March, with one-third of that volume still waiting to reach markets, Birol told energy ministers. Those releases represent 20% of total reserves, leaving 80% untouched and available if member nations agree to deploy them for current or future market challenges. Diesel prices across the EU hit a record €2.23 per litre last week, with France paying €2.40 and Denmark reaching €2.56 on Tuesday. The US now supplies roughly half of Europe's diesel imports, measured in August figures, after EU sanctions on Russian oil products took effect in 2023. The Strait of Hormuz, which carried about one-fifth of globally traded oil before the Iran conflict, has seen shipments disrupted, tightening diesel and crude supplies worldwide.
According to Birol, Europe stands as "one of the most exposed regions — if not the most exposed one" for diesel because the continent imports huge volumes of the fuel just as winter approaches. Jørgensen urged faster investment in electricity and power infrastructure to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels. The European Commission previously called a potential US diesel export ban a "bad idea" that would harm both economies, though Ireland's energy minister Darragh O'Brien described such a ban as "unlikely" because of the damage it would inflict on both sides of the Atlantic. Oxford Economics calculates that a full US export ban could lift European wholesale diesel prices by 40% to 50%, with some of that increase passed to consumers as an added €0.50 to €0.60 per litre including VAT, plus a few tenths of a percentage point added to inflation.
Finding replacement diesel would take time if US restrictions took hold, Oxford Economics notes, because Middle Eastern supplies face constraints and Asian refiners sit farther from European ports. The analysis suggests Europe could draw on emergency reserves if US restrictions drove prices higher, potentially capping the increase. Even US refiners oppose export curbs: the Business Roundtable, American Petroleum Institute, and more than two dozen trade groups warned President Trump in a September 23 letter that blocking diesel exports could force refiners to cut production, reducing output of petrol and jet fuel as well. US refineries operated above 95% capacity for much of the summer, hitting roughly 98% in late August, which leaves little room to boost output. O'Brien cautioned that Europe can't afford complacency, urging the bloc to prepare even as the likelihood of a ban remains low.