A new European Union regulation designed to cut methane emissions could block roughly 87% of the bloc's crude oil imports and 43% of its gas supplies when it takes effect in January 2027, according to analysis from Wood Mackenzie published this week. The energy consultancy warns that Article 28 of the EU's Methane Emissions Regulation, agreed more than two years ago, now risks deepening an energy crisis already strained by conflicts in Iran and Ukraine. What seemed a well-intentioned climate policy is increasingly looking like a self-inflicted wound at precisely the wrong moment.
Wood Mackenzie's March 2026 analysis, prepared for industry groups Concawe and IOGP Europe, modeled two scenarios for compliance. In its Default scenario — which assumes the EU enforces the regulation as written — only 57% of the bloc's 2024 gas and LNG import volumes would meet methane measurement and reporting standards by the January 2027 deadline, leaving nearly half of European gas demand at risk of exclusion from the market. The outlook for crude oil is far grimmer: compliant supply could drop to around 13% of total 2024 crude imports under the same assumptions, threatening the foundation of European refining. Even an Adaptive scenario, which assumes the EU prioritizes energy security and grants flexibility to 10 major exporting countries, would only lift compliance to 80% for gas — still far from enough to prevent a supply crisis.
The regulation requires importers to comply with the same methane measurement, reporting, and verification standards already imposed on EU oil and gas producers, with penalties reaching up to 20% of an importer's global annual revenues for non-compliance. But most oil and gas exporting countries outside Europe aren't ready to meet EU equivalence within the timeframe, the report states, and no agency is yet accredited to verify methane measurement and reporting of production outside the EU. Importers have said they won't accept the legal, commercial, and reputational risks of non-compliance, raising the possibility that LNG tankers could be left at sea in mid-winter, unable to land unverified cargoes. Seventeen EU member states and industry groups have called for a three-year postponement, while French President Emmanuel Macron wrote to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last month requesting a one-year delay to January 2028.
The timing couldn't be worse. Europe's gas market is already stretched tight, with spot prices hitting multi-year highs and storage tracking to just 71% against an 80% target by the end of October, the report notes. Little to no new LNG supply is expected before the second half of 2027, and oil markets face similar strain: diesel prices have climbed from around €1.60 per liter to record levels as constrained supply tightens the market for refined products. Add methane regulation non-compliance into the mix, and European and Asian traded gas prices this winter could approach the peaks seen after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Push refiners too hard on sourcing, Wood Mackenzie warns, and Europe risks accelerating refinery closures, worsening energy security, and cutting jobs across the continent.
Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen signaled this week that the European Commission may delay implementation by 12 months, a step Wood Mackenzie expects Brussels to take. But even a year's postponement may not be enough: it would still leave methane measurement and verification compliance a genuine challenge for many importers, though it would improve the odds that imports can keep the EU supplied through a dangerous stretch of overlapping crises. Good intentions, badly timed, can still inflict real damage — and Brussels now faces a choice between climate ambition and energy security at a moment when both feel equally urgent.