Students in Minneapolis Public Schools are falling further behind the longer they stay in the district, according to a new analysis on academic performance from researchers at Stanford and Harvard. The district's "learning rate" sits at 0.87, meaning students gain only 87 percent of a grade level's worth of learning for every year they spend in Minneapolis classrooms. A student who starts behind doesn't catch up but instead falls further behind, with the cumulative shortfall approaching a full lost grade level over six years from grades 3 through 8.
The data paints a troubling picture across multiple measures. On average, Minneapolis students perform nearly two grade levels below the national average in reading and math, at -1.91. That's worse than the average for similar districts, which stands at -0.71, and far worse than the Minnesota state average of -0.13. Among roughly 10,000 districts included in the analysis, Minneapolis ranks in the 11th percentile in math and 14th in reading. The learning rate itself has been slipping by about 0.02 a year, while test scores have fallen by about 0.11 grade levels annually since 2022. The district is also dealing with a $50 million budget deficit, millions in IRS penalties, half-underused school buildings, declining enrollment, staffing troubles, and chronic absenteeism that has more than doubled since 2017.
The report notes that districts serving similar student populations are outperforming Minneapolis, as are private schools like Hope Academy, which serves many of the same families. According to the analysis, nationally a learning rate of 1.0 means a student gains a full grade level of skills per school year. The report states that "this suggests the problem includes whether students have access to schools that are producing stronger outcomes."
The analysis points to the problem's severity by emphasizing that instruction isn't moving students forward quickly enough. When a district's learning rate falls below 1.0, students who start behind can't catch up because they're not gaining ground fast enough each year. The report explores potential solutions, noting that one proposal would break up the district into smaller ones, an idea pitched in the Minnesota legislature a decade ago that could decentralize structure and decision-making to make schools more responsive to families. But the report emphasizes that families whose children are struggling today don't have that kind of time. It highlights that expanding access to schools like Hope Academy would offer help much sooner, citing research showing that 90 percent of empirical studies on private school choice programs find they help, not hurt, the test scores of students who stay in public schools.
The report concludes that states across the country have been chipping away at financial barriers keeping families stuck in underperforming districts, and Minnesota has its own version of that idea on the table right now. The new federal scholarship tax credit represents another opportunity to help Minnesota students, if the governor opts the state in. The bottom line: families deserve access to schools and education resources that will meet their needs now, and the question is whether Minnesota will give it to them.