Illinois public schools are teaching fewer students than a decade ago, yet taxpayers continue funding a system built for more, according to a report published by the Illinois Policy Institute. The analysis finds that falling birth rates will likely worsen the state's declining public school enrollment, a reality that should inform education policymakers' decisions. The National Center for Education Statistics projected in early 2024 that Illinois public school enrollment would fall to 1.8 million students by 2030, but state data shows the number had already dropped to almost that low for the 2024-25 school year.
The report details sharp declines across multiple measures. Illinois recorded just under 125,000 births in 2023, a 31% decline from 2007 and one of the steepest drops in the country. Year-over-year enrollment in Illinois increased only two times over the past 15 school years. Nationally, public schools are serving 1.2 million fewer students in 2022-23 than before the pandemic, and enrollment is projected to fall by another 2.4 million students by 2031. Chicago Public Schools enrolled 316,224 students at the start of the 2025-26 school year, down 17% from 2016-17, and the district projects enrollment could decline by up to 8% over the next three years. Chicago recorded 26,950 births in 2023, a decline of 37% from 2010. More than 150 CPS schools operate below half their capacity, with 50 being at one-third capacity or less, and 58% of the district's school buildings are underutilized, defined by the state as enrolling less than 70% capacity.
The report states that the COVID-19 pandemic was a major factor in the decline, but enrollment had already been falling for years. According to the analysis, birth data previews future enrollment trends, meaning fewer births today mean fewer elementary and high school students in the years ahead. The authors note that the drop in births is occurring alongside outmigration and families choosing other education options, further contributing to the state's enrollment decline.
The analysis explains that empty seats carry real costs for taxpayers. As enrollment declines, taxpayers must cover the same fixed costs across a shrinking student population, with dollars that could support students remaining tied up maintaining underused buildings. Severely underutilized CPS elementary schools spend roughly $4,700 more per student than those that are efficiently utilized at 70% or more of capacity, while severely underutilized high schools spend on average more than $12,000 more per student compared to efficient schools. Chicago Public Schools offer a glimpse of what many districts may face, with fewer students leaving the district maintaining buildings designed for far larger enrollments.
The report recommends that policymakers address this reality by directing education dollars toward students rather than empty seats. The authors argue that Illinois cannot afford to ignore these trends, as the financial burden of maintaining underused infrastructure grows. The bottom line: with birth rates at historic lows and enrollment already hitting projections meant for 2030, the state's school funding model needs to catch up to demographic reality.