Most of the export growth touted by the Trump Administration in early 2026 had nothing to do with its trade agreements, according to an analysis published June 22 by the National Taxpayers Union. The report challenges U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer's claim that monthly exports exceeding $300 billion represent "the highest figures in 250 years of American history" driven by President Trump's deals. Instead, the analysis finds that 85% of export growth in U.S.-made goods and services came from sectors unaffected by the Administration's so-called Agreements on Reciprocal Trade.
The report breaks down export growth from the first quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026 in detail. Over half the increase in USTR Greer's $300 billion figure came from re-exports of foreign goods, not American products. Services exports, which weren't subject to foreign tariffs, rose by $22 billion. Exports of gold and silver surged nearly 350%, accounting for over half of all U.S. goods export growth—a spike the report attributes to foreign uncertainty about the global economy rather than American economic strength. Energy exports led by oil and natural gas made up 7.8% of U.S. export growth, while civilian aircraft accounted for 5.8%. Foreign tariffs on these products were already at zero under long-standing agreements. The export growth persisted even after a 31% drop in exports to China.
The report argues that USTR Greer's trade agreements have done little to open new markets. According to the analysis, the Administration "failed to secure an extension of the moratorium on the taxation of cross-border digital transmissions" that had existed since 1998 and "neglected to include protections for U.S. digital services providers in its agreement with the European Union." The report states that exports are higher than in previous years simply "because economic growth allows us to produce more, and it allows people in other countries to afford more of our products." When measured as a share of the economy, exports for early 2026 were actually lower than the average from 2000 to 2025, undercutting claims of record performance.
The report's author, Bryan Riley, explains that exports and imports move together: "Every dollar Americans spend on imports allows our trading partners to spend or invest a dollar in the United States." Since 1976, each dollar in import growth has corresponded to an average of 79 cents in new exports. An April 2026 National Bureau of Economic Research study cited in the report found that every 1 percentage point increase in tariffs led to an average 2% decline in exports. The analysis warns that the "double-digit tariffs embedded in every one of these deals will leave our trading partners with fewer dollars to spend on American goods and services, impeding the very U.S. production that the Administration says it wants to encourage."
The report concludes that "a surefire way to boost exports is to reduce barriers to imports"—the opposite of current policy. While it's encouraging that Administration officials are talking about exports instead of trade deficits, the analysis makes clear that high tariffs in the Agreements on Reciprocal Trade create the biggest barrier to future U.S. export growth. The bottom line: if the Trump Administration wants to genuinely increase American exports, it should remove the tariffs that prevent foreign buyers from earning the dollars they need to purchase U.S. goods.